Now that we have discussed Tim Tebow let's go over some of the other QB prospects looking to get drafted in 2010. Here's the top QB prospects other than Tebow as we head towards the combines and the Senior Bowl.
Sam Bradford
Jimmy Clausen
Jevean Snead
Colt McCoy
Tony Pike
That's the order I see them being drafted. Now let's break them down.
Sam Bradford:
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 214
School: Oklahoma
Pros: Very accurate passer. Has good height for his position. Quick release. Experienced despite being a junior. Good footwork.
Cons: Injured shoulder. Might be injury prone due to lack of bulk and strength. Average arm strength. Performed well when given time from OL, but lacks the mobility and strength to deal with a pass rush. Good examples of this are last year when scoring 60+ points per game in the defensive deficient Big 12 he could only 14 points against Florida in the National Championship game and also this year when he got hit and injured repeatedly.
The biggest concerns for scouts are his injured shoulder and arm strength. Tom Brady also was a skinny kid who supposedly didn't have a strong arm going into the draft. Bradford will most likely be drafted in the top half of the first round.
Jimmy Clausen:
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 217
School: Notre Dame
Pros: Good size for the position. Experienced 3 year starter from a major program. Good poise and very confident. Played under NFL "type" offense with Charlie Weiss.
Cons: Average arm strength. Tended to lob too many balls up where he was helped out by NFL talent at his WR positions and the horrible opposition he was playing against. Seemed immature at times.
Many people have Clausen as the top pick. They believe he has a strong arm and great intangibles. I disagree with both of those. I think he has a suspect arm which was disguised by his WR's and that he's pretty immature. Despite that he will still probably be picked in the top half of the first round.
Jevean Snead:
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 218
School: Ole Miss
Pros: Strong arm. Has experience in a pro style type offense. Has good size for the position.
Cons: Not very accurate. Threw a ton of picks this year when the spotlight was on him.
I see Snead as a 3rd round pick. He has potential, but he needs to make better decisions with the ball.
Colt McCoy:
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 210
School: Texas
Pros: Very mobile QB. Accurate in the short to intermediate game.
Cons: Weak like Chad Pennington like arm. Took most snaps in the shotgun. Doesn't have prototypical size. Didn't play well against better defenses this year (Nebraska, Oklahoma and Alabama). Questions about his ability to take a hit after he went down with a bruise in the National Championship Game.
Some people still have colt McCoy as a second rounder. I however think he's more of a 3rd or 4th round pick.
Tony Pike:
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 225
School: Cincinnati
Pros: He's huge and has prototypical size for a pocket passer. Accurate QB who was successful in college.
Cons: Very weak arm. Not very mobile. Didn't play well against the best defense he faced in Florida.
Most people see him as a 3rd or 4th rounder.
Overall this class would have been more interesting if Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett decided to declare, but that's my take. Now what's yours?
Monday, January 25, 2010
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Tim Tebow the big NFL draft mystery
Tim Tebow. The biggest name in college sports is now creating more than a few water cooler discussions about his NFL future and where he should be drafted. While he has many supporters including Tony Dungy, John Gruden, Jim Kelly and others, he probably has more people claiming he won't make it. His many detractors include Todd McShay and Mel Kiper of ESPN who argue he doesn't have enough arm strength, accuracy, pocket presence, footwork, release, etc necessary to be an NFL QB. These same people claim that it is too much of a risk to draft Tim Tebow in the first two rounds as a QB and that he is better suited as a 3rd, 4th, or even later pick.
Let's break down some of those arguments:
1. Tim Tebow is too much of a risk to take in the first two rounds. Really? Let's take a look at the QB's taken in the first two rounds of the draft for the last few years: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell.
Every QB you take is a risk. Nobody is a guarantee. You don't know how these QB's will pan out in the NFL. We're not even looking back at some horrible picks like Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown and others who were top 10 picks. Saying Tim Tebow is too much of a risk is a fallacy.
2. Tim Tebow doesn't have enough accuracy. Tim Tebow's career passing percentage is 67.1 percent. That's better than players like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and other greats who have come out of the SEC. He also has a higher passer efficieny rating than them as well.
3. Tim Tebow has a slow release that starts low and has bad footwork. Everyone can see that, but those things can be fixed. Even if they can't there have been others like Philip Rivers with weird or slow releases that have done all right. It's worked thus far, and although I'd try to change his motion, it's not out of the question that he can't get away with it at the next level. Tim Tebow throws off the wrong foot a lot of the times or sidearms the ball. That's the reason why it looks like he doesn't have enough arm strength. If he steps into his throws he actually has plenty of arm strength to make all the throws necessary in the NFL. He's thrown the ball 60 yards off his knees so he's definitely not another Chad Pennington. He just needs a little work.
4. Tim Tebow is slow and his running style won't work in the NFL. Tim Tebow ran a 4.5 second 40 yard dash time coming into college. While the accuracy of that is debatable, it shows he has the enough speed to run in the NFL. Vince Young ran a 4.6 second 40 yard dash and people marveled at his speed for a QB. RB's like Knowshon Moreno run a 4.6 second 40 yard dash too so he has more than enough speed to run in the NFL.
Now those are different types of runners. Tim Tebow probably compares more with Mike Alstott and Jerome Bettis in terms of running style although he's faster than both of them and they turned out all right.
5. Tim Tebow plays in the spread and can't take snaps under center. These are also the same people who are willing to take Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy really high even though they take snaps primarily out of the shotgun formation in spread offenses too. Not to mention that in the NFL! players like Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and others also primarily take snaps out of the shotgun too and they're not too bad.
6. Tim Tebow can't succeed because other Florida QB's like Chris Leak, Danny Weurfel, Rex Grossman, etc. weren't successfull in the NFL. I don't even know where to start on this one. Past history at a school has almost no bearing at all on how a current player will do especially when it's from different coaching staffs and regimes. I guess Ben Rothlesberger couldn't succeed since no one else at his school had been successfull or Philip Rivers, or Steve McNair, or Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees and others. Not to mention Leak, Grossman and Weurfel were all short standing at only 6 feet tall. Leak and Weurfel also had weak arms unlike Tim Tebow.
7. He's a Heisman winner so he's going to be just like Eric Crouch or Chris Weinke or Gino Torretta or Jason White etc. OK, that's some solid reasoning right there (sarcasm). Let's see Eric Crouch was 5'8" tall and he had no arm strength. Weinke was about 28 years old in college and like Torretta and Jason White he was slow and lacked suffient arm strength to succeed in the NFL. They are in no way comparable to Tim Tebow so please stop using this argument.
Every QB, and I mean every single Qb drafted has questions going into the NFL draft (I'll dissect the other QB's in the draft in another post), but I think Tim Tebow has the necessary tools to be successfull in the NFL. I'm not even talking about his intangibles which are off the chart. He's 6'3" and 245 lbs. He has a strong arm and he's quick. I'd take him just based off that. There's just so many Tim Tebow haters out there that they cling to just about anything and everything they can.
Let's break down some of those arguments:
1. Tim Tebow is too much of a risk to take in the first two rounds. Really? Let's take a look at the QB's taken in the first two rounds of the draft for the last few years: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell.
Every QB you take is a risk. Nobody is a guarantee. You don't know how these QB's will pan out in the NFL. We're not even looking back at some horrible picks like Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown and others who were top 10 picks. Saying Tim Tebow is too much of a risk is a fallacy.
2. Tim Tebow doesn't have enough accuracy. Tim Tebow's career passing percentage is 67.1 percent. That's better than players like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and other greats who have come out of the SEC. He also has a higher passer efficieny rating than them as well.
3. Tim Tebow has a slow release that starts low and has bad footwork. Everyone can see that, but those things can be fixed. Even if they can't there have been others like Philip Rivers with weird or slow releases that have done all right. It's worked thus far, and although I'd try to change his motion, it's not out of the question that he can't get away with it at the next level. Tim Tebow throws off the wrong foot a lot of the times or sidearms the ball. That's the reason why it looks like he doesn't have enough arm strength. If he steps into his throws he actually has plenty of arm strength to make all the throws necessary in the NFL. He's thrown the ball 60 yards off his knees so he's definitely not another Chad Pennington. He just needs a little work.
4. Tim Tebow is slow and his running style won't work in the NFL. Tim Tebow ran a 4.5 second 40 yard dash time coming into college. While the accuracy of that is debatable, it shows he has the enough speed to run in the NFL. Vince Young ran a 4.6 second 40 yard dash and people marveled at his speed for a QB. RB's like Knowshon Moreno run a 4.6 second 40 yard dash too so he has more than enough speed to run in the NFL.
Now those are different types of runners. Tim Tebow probably compares more with Mike Alstott and Jerome Bettis in terms of running style although he's faster than both of them and they turned out all right.
5. Tim Tebow plays in the spread and can't take snaps under center. These are also the same people who are willing to take Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy really high even though they take snaps primarily out of the shotgun formation in spread offenses too. Not to mention that in the NFL! players like Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and others also primarily take snaps out of the shotgun too and they're not too bad.
6. Tim Tebow can't succeed because other Florida QB's like Chris Leak, Danny Weurfel, Rex Grossman, etc. weren't successfull in the NFL. I don't even know where to start on this one. Past history at a school has almost no bearing at all on how a current player will do especially when it's from different coaching staffs and regimes. I guess Ben Rothlesberger couldn't succeed since no one else at his school had been successfull or Philip Rivers, or Steve McNair, or Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees and others. Not to mention Leak, Grossman and Weurfel were all short standing at only 6 feet tall. Leak and Weurfel also had weak arms unlike Tim Tebow.
7. He's a Heisman winner so he's going to be just like Eric Crouch or Chris Weinke or Gino Torretta or Jason White etc. OK, that's some solid reasoning right there (sarcasm). Let's see Eric Crouch was 5'8" tall and he had no arm strength. Weinke was about 28 years old in college and like Torretta and Jason White he was slow and lacked suffient arm strength to succeed in the NFL. They are in no way comparable to Tim Tebow so please stop using this argument.
Every QB, and I mean every single Qb drafted has questions going into the NFL draft (I'll dissect the other QB's in the draft in another post), but I think Tim Tebow has the necessary tools to be successfull in the NFL. I'm not even talking about his intangibles which are off the chart. He's 6'3" and 245 lbs. He has a strong arm and he's quick. I'd take him just based off that. There's just so many Tim Tebow haters out there that they cling to just about anything and everything they can.
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